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Macro & the economy

Gross Domestic Product GDP

The total market value of all finished goods and services produced inside a country's borders during a set period, usually a quarter or a year.

Formula
GDP = C + I + G + (X − M) — consumption + investment + government spending + (exports − imports)

What it is

Gross Domestic Product is the standard headline measure of the size of an economy. It adds up the market value of every finished good and service produced within a country's geographic borders over a period — typically a calendar quarter or a full year. "Within the borders" is the key phrase: output from a foreign-owned factory operating in the country counts, while output a domestic company produces abroad does not. GDP counts only final goods, not the intermediate parts sold along the way, so a car is counted once rather than counted again for every bolt inside it.

Why it matters

GDP is the yardstick many other economic statistics are measured against. Government debt, deficits, and trade balances are all commonly expressed as a share of it, so the denominator matters. It is also the broadest single indicator of whether an economy is expanding or contracting, which is why central banks, governments, and analysts watch it closely. GDP describes the conditions a business operates in, not the condition of any individual business. It is backward-looking and repeatedly revised, so it reports what already happened rather than what comes next, and a single quarter's reading says little on its own.

How it's calculated

GDP is compiled by national statistical agencies, not calculated by investors. Three approaches exist and in principle produce the same total: the expenditure approach (sum what everyone spends), the income approach (sum what everyone earns), and the production approach (sum the value added at each stage). The expenditure approach is the most commonly quoted. Agencies publish an early estimate shortly after a quarter closes, then revise it repeatedly as fuller data arrives; revisions can be material. Nominal GDP is measured at current prices; real GDP is adjusted for price changes so growth reflects more output rather than higher prices. Headline growth is normally the change in real GDP.

Cross-border note. Headline conventions differ. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis quotes quarterly real GDP growth at a seasonally adjusted annual rate: the quarter's change scaled as if it ran a full year. Statistics Canada reports the plain quarter-over-quarter change alongside its annualized equivalent, and also publishes an official monthly GDP by industry, which the US does not. Check the basis before comparing.

FAQ

Is GDP the same as a country's income or wealth?
No. GDP measures a flow of production over a period, not a stock of accumulated wealth. It also says nothing about how that output is distributed among people. Gross National Product (GNP) and Gross National Income (GNI) are related but different: they count output or income by a country's residents wherever it is earned, while GDP counts output by location regardless of who owns it.
What is the difference between nominal and real GDP?
Nominal GDP is measured at the prices actually paid during the period. Real GDP strips out changing prices by valuing output in the prices of a reference year, so the change reflects a change in the quantity of output rather than in price levels. If prices rise and physical output stays flat, nominal GDP rises while real GDP does not. Growth headlines almost always refer to real GDP.
Do two negative quarters of GDP mean a recession?
That is a common rule of thumb, not an official definition. In the US, recessions are dated by a National Bureau of Economic Research committee, which weighs a range of indicators including employment and income, and can date a recession that does not fit the two-quarter pattern. In Canada, the C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council plays a comparable dating role. GDP is one input among several.
Related terms
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